The intragenerational mobility of the top income earners during financial crises, a story of a cohort.

In this study, we explore the dynamics of the intragenerational mobility of the top income earners during financial crises. We analyze panel data on the income levels of a cohort consisting of 22,601 individuals in Israel born between 1963 and 1973, for the period between 1995 and 2013. Studying a specific cohort allows us to focus on the changes caused by period effects, rather than cohort replacement distortions. We use common intragenerational mobility measurements before, during, and after two major recessions- the Dot.com crisis and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008- which occurred during the analyzed period. However, since these are usually descriptive, we adopt a methodology that enables us to calculate confidence intervals of these measurements and thus test for changes over time. Our results show if the two crises had any effect on the intragenerational mobility of the top income earners of the analyzed cohort, it was a minor and transitory effect.

Efficient Multi-Change Point Analysis to Decode Economic Crisis Information from the S&P500 Mean Market Correlation.

Identifying macroeconomic events that are responsible for dramatic changes of economy is of particular relevance to understanding the overall economic dynamics. We introduce an open-source available efficient Python implementation of a Bayesian multi-trend change point analysis, which solves significant memory and computing time limitations to extract crisis information from a correlation metric. Therefore, we focus on the recently investigated S&P500 mean market correlation in a period of roughly 20 years that includes the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis, and the Euro crisis. The analysis is performed two-fold: first, in retrospect on the whole dataset and second, in an online adaptive manner in pre-crisis segments. The online sensitivity horizon is roughly determined to be 80 up to 100 trading days after a crisis onset. A detailed comparison to global economic events supports the interpretation of the mean market correlation as an informative macroeconomic measure by a rather good agreement of change point distributions and major crisis events. Furthermore, the results hint at the importance of the U.S. housing bubble as a trigger of the global financial crisis, provide new evidence for the general reasoning of locally (meta)stable economic states, and could work as a comparative impact rating of specific economic events.

A pilot predictive model based on COVID-19 data to assess suicidal ideation indirectly.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the mental health of the population. Many studies reported high levels of psychological distress and rising rates of suicidal ideation (SI). Data on a range of psychometric scales from 1790 respondents were collected in Slovenia through an online survey between July 2020 and January 2021. As a worrying percentage (9.7%) of respondents reported having SI within the last month, the goal of this study was to estimate the presence of SI, as indicated by the Suicidal Ideation Attributes Scale (SIDAS). The estimation was based on the change of habits, demographic features, strategies for coping with stress, and satisfaction with three most important aspects of life (relationships, finances, and housing). This could both help recognize the telltale factors indicative of SI and potentially identify people at risk. The factors were specifically selected to be discreet about suicide, likely sacrificing some accuracy in return. We tried four machine learning algorithms: binary logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, and support vector machines. Logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost models achieved comparable performance with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 on previously unseen data. We found an association between various subscales of Brief-COPE and SI; Self-Blame was especially indicative of the presence of SI, followed by increase in Substance Use, low Positive Reframing, Behavioral Disengagement, dissatisfaction with relationships and lower age. The results showed that the presence of SI can be estimated with reasonable specificity and sensitivity based on the proposed indicators. This suggests that the indicators we examined have a potential to be developed into a quick screening tool that would assess suicidality indirectly, without unnecessary exposure to direct questions on suicidality. As with any screening tool, subjects identified as being at risk, should be further clinically examined.

Crisis, What Crisis? The Effect of Economic Crises on Spending on Online and Offline Gambling in Spain: Implications for Preventing Gambling Disorder.

(1) Background: In the period between 2008 and 2020, the world experienced two global economic crises that affected people's way of life and well-being: the financial crisis of 2008 and that precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the crises' radically different causes, their consequences for economic activity have been equally dramatic; (2) Methods: This article analyzes the consequences of both crises on gambling spending in Spain and compares traditional (offline) games with more recent online offerings. The data were collected from databases maintained by the Spanish government and gambling companies; (3) Results: The paper offers two main conclusions. The first is that, while traditional (offline) gambling has been significantly affected by economic crises, online gambling has exhibited consistent growth since its legalization. The second is that the measures implemented to resolve the two economic crises differed significantly and thus had different impacts on spending on the various types of gambling; (4) Conclusions: The key conclusion is that purchasing power (measured in terms of GDP) can only explain spending on less addictive gambling games, such as lotteries. However, the availability and accessibility of games are both directly related to spending on games of all types.

An impact of economic slowdown on health. New evidence from 21 European countries.

BACKGROUND: The economic slowdown affects the population's health. Based on a social gradient concept, we usually assume that this detrimental impact results from a lower social status, joblessness, or other related factors. Although many researchers dealt with the relationship between economy and health, the findings are still inconsistent, primarily related to unemployment. This study reinvestigates a relationship between the economy's condition and health by decomposing it into macroeconomic indicators. METHODS: We use data for 21 European countries to estimate the panel models, covering the years 1995-2019. Dependent variables describe population health (objective measures - life expectancy for a newborn and 65 years old, healthy life expectancy, separately for male and female). The explanatory variables primarily represent GDP and other variables describing the public finance and health sectors. RESULTS: (1) the level of economic activity affects the population's health - GDP stimulates the life expectancies positively; this finding is strongly statistically significant; (2) the unemployment rate also positively affects health; hence, increasing the unemployment rate is linked to better health - this effect is relatively short-term. CONCLUSIONS: Social benefits or budgetary imbalance may play a protective role during an economic downturn.

Addressing the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan through $10 billion Afghani assets: what are the challenges and opportunities at hand?

BACKGROUND: The current humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan started after the US and international allies' withdrawal. This has put the country in a dire situation as the globalized infrastructure supporting Afghanistan came to halt. Moreover, 10 billion USD of Afghanistan's assets were frozen by the U.S and other international organizations after the Taliban takeover. This further exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and quickened the economic collapse in Afghanistan. These assets should be freed to support the people of Afghanistan. MAIN BODY: In order to address this situation, international oversight is needed to allow these funds to be returned and used by the Central Bank of Afghanistan without misappropriation by the Taliban. We suggest a number of short term interventions and long term considerations to improve the situation in Afghanistan with the $10 billion in frozen assets. In the short term, economic stability and the hunger crisis should be addressed by funding international organizations such as the World Food Program and national Afghani NGOs. In the long term funds should be used to build back the economy, build healthcare infrastructure, and support the development of women and children. CONCLUSION: At this juncture, the world and international organizations have a moral and ethical responsibility to ensure the 10 billion in funds go to the owners, the people of Afghanistan. With oversight and fund distribution to the right partners, progress can be made by providing support in security, healthcare, education and food resources. This calls for action to deliver $10 billion of assets to the Afghan people in a transparent manner, avoiding further tension and disasters in the country.

Firm-level trade credit responses to COVID-19-induced monetary and fiscal policies: International evidence.

This paper provides preliminary evidence of the effects of fiscal and monetary policies designed to mitigate and contain the adverse economic impacts of COVID-19 on supplier-customer relationships during the first two quarters of 2020. We compare the impacts of various intervention policies on corporate trade credit for a sample of 14,623 firm-quarter observations, representing 56 countries, after controlling for quarter-, country-, industry-, and firm-fixed effects. We find that, overall, the monetary interventions are associated with lower levels of trade credit, while fiscal interventions increase the use of trade credit. Our results suggest that trade credit is lower in periods of less-restrictive bank credit. This finding has important policy implications for governments as they attempt to help financially constrained businesses survive the pandemic.

Analysis of Crisis Phenomena in the Russian Economy Using Fast Indicators of Economic Security.

This article shows the possibility of applying short-term (fast) indicators of economic security to analyze crisis phenomena in the economy of Russia. The system includes the indicators adopted in the Strategy for the Economic Security of the Russian Federation up to 2030. It is proposed to jointly analyze these indicators through new nonlinear normalizing functions that contain their threshold and target values as parameters. The fast indicators system is used to analyze four economic crises in Russia, including their prerequisites and the pace and depth of the recession and subsequent recovery of the real economy and other sectors, such as the financial and social sectors, and foreign trade. Integral indices are synthesized for these sectors, the composite index of economic security is calculated, and the patterns of their joint movement are considered. The RTS index is singled out among the forward-looking indices that can be potential forerunners of a crisis.

ECONOMIC CRISES AS A MOTIVE FOR CHANGE IN HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS - A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE WITH REFERENCE TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Economic crises throughout history have often given an impetus for health and social reforms leading to the introduction of general healthcare systems and social equality in a large number of countries. The aim of this paper is to present the major economic crises and their effect on healthcare and social system chronologically. Bismarck's and Beveridge's model, the two most prominent healthcare models, which emerged primarily as a response to major economic crises, constitute the basis for the functioning of most health care systems in the world. An overview of historical events and experiences may be valuable in predicting future developments and potential effects of the crisis on healthcare systems and health in general. An analysis of past crises as well as current health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and their impact on the healthcare system can facilitate the comprehension of the mechanisms of action and consequences of economic recession. It may also help identify guidelines and changes that might reduce the potential damage caused by future crises. The historical examples presented show that a crisis could trigger changes, which, in theiressence, are not necessarily negative. The response of society as a whole determines the direction of these changes, and it is up to society to transform the negative circumstances brought about by the recession into activities that contribute to general well-being and progress.

Children on the brink: Risks for child protection, sexual abuse, and related mental health problems in the COVID-19 pandemic.

In developing contexts such as India, children in adversity form a high-risk group, one that cannot be subsumed under the general category of children, who are generally considered as a vulnerable group in disaster and crisis situations. Child mental health issues in contexts of protection risks and childhood adversity tend to be over-looked in such crises. This article focuses on examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its socio-economic consequences on children in adversity, describing the increased child protection and psychosocial risks they are placed at, during and in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis and its lockdown situation. It specifically links the lockdown and the ensuing economic issues to sexuality and abuse-related risks, as occur in contexts of child labour, child sex work and trafficking, child marriage and child sexual abuse, and that result in immediate and long-term mental health problems in children. It proposes a disaster risk reduction lens to offer recommendations to address the emerging child protection, psychosocial and mental health concerns.

Confidence collapse in a multihousehold, self-reflexive DSGE model.

We investigate a multihousehold dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich and leads to a variety of realistic output dynamics: high output with no crises; high output with increased volatility and deep, short-lived recessions; and alternation of high- and low-output states where a relatively mild drop in economic conditions can lead to a temporary confidence collapse and steep decline in economic activity. The crisis probability depends exponentially on the parameters of the model, which means that markets cannot efficiently price the associated risk premium. We conclude by stressing that within our framework, narratives become an important monetary policy tool that can help steer the economy back on track.

Economic crises, behavioral changes and hospitalization due to affective disorders in Brazil between 2003 and 2017: a nationwide cross-sectional study

ABSTRACT Our aim was to analyze hospitalization due to affective disorders in Brazil from 2003 to 2017 and the possible association with economic indicators during crises. We used data on hospitalizations due to affective disorders within the Brazilian National Health System, obtained from DATASUS; data on health-related behavior (television-viewing and physical activity) from the VIGITEL database; and economic data from the World Bank database. We found that the numbers of hospitalizations increased one year after the 2009 crisis and one year after the 2016 crisis. Negative changes in health-related behavior also followed changes in the numbers of hospitalizations due to affective disorders.

The effect of financial crises on air pollutant emissions: An assessment of the short vs. medium-term effects.

This paper empirically investigates the impact of financial crises on air pollutant emissions (CO2, SO2, NOx and PM2.5). A panel data approach is used, including 419 financial crisis episodes in >150 countries over the period 1970-2014. The short- and medium-term effects of crises are estimated, using a GMM specification (for short-term) and the estimation of impulse response functions (for medium-term). Results show that in the short-term, as a consequence financial crises, emissions decrease for all gases except for PM2.5. In particular, emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx decrease by 2.6, 1.8, and 1.7% respectively. However, in the medium-term, financial crises cause insignificant effect on emissions, or in some cases even lead to a 1-2% increase, cancelling out the initial benefit. Our analysis also shows that the effect of crises is larger in high income and upper-middle income countries. Moreover, recent crises had a larger short-term impact on air pollutants than crises in previous decades. Our results suggest that the beneficial impact of financial crises on air quality is short-lived. To preserve this beneficial impact in the long run and avert new negative post-crisis emission patterns and dynamics, policy responses to financial crises should encompass tighter environmental regulations and green investments.

Alcohol Use and COVID-19: Can we Predict the Impact of the Pandemic on Alcohol Use Based on the Previous Crises in the 21st Century? A Brief Review.

The enormous health and economic challenges precipitated by the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic are comparable or even greater than those associated with previous historical world crises. Alcohol use, especially drinking to cope with stress, is a concern, as an increase in its sales has been reported in some countries during the quarantine. This study aims to provide a better understanding of what to expect in terms of alcohol consumption, risk factors for excessive use, and its potential consequences during this pandemic based on previous experiences. We investigated how traumatic events related to alcohol consumption. Studies on mass traumatic events (i.e., terrorism as 9/11), epidemic outbreaks (i.e., severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS] in 2003), economic crises (such as 2008's Great Recession), and COVID-19 were selected. The main keywords used to select the studies were alcohol use, drinking patterns, alcohol use disorders, and alcohol-related consequences. Previous studies reported increases in alcohol use associated with those events mediated, at least partially, by anxiety and depressive symptoms, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Being male, young, and single also seems to be associated with a higher vulnerability to develop risky drinking behavior after those tragic events. The discussion of previous risk and protective factors can contribute to elaborate more specific public health policies to mitigate the impact of the current pandemic on people's mental health, especially alcohol-related problems.

Austerity Talk and Crisis Narratives: Memory Politics, Xenophobia, and Citizenship in the European Union.

The focus in this paper is on understanding the complex intersections between crises and memory politics in shaping conversations about citizenship through an examination of the two defining crises of our time: the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the migrant crisis in the European Union (starting in 2011 and continuing). The paper looks at these crises as narrative devices that intersect with memory politics in ways that heighten and intensify xenophobic and nationalist anxieties. The paper's discussion is primarily theoretical, complemented with evidence drawn from public statements and policy platforms of three key right-wing Eurosceptic parties in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Rassemblement National (RN), and the Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD).

Análise crítica da proposta de reforma da previdência social no Brasil entre os anos 2016 e 2018 / Critical analysis of the proposal for social security reform in Brazil between 2016 and 2018

Resumo: O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi a análise crítica da tentativa de contrarreforma da previdência que se materializou na Proposta de Emenda Constitucional n. 287/2016. A metodologia utilizada foi a pesquisa teórico-bibliográfica e o método foi o materialismo histórico. Os resultados da pesquisa mostraram que a ofensiva liberal conservadora pela retirada dos direitos previdenciários está relacionada aos interesses do capital financeiro para aumentar seus lucros à custa do Orçamento da União.

Abstract: This article aims a critical analysis from social-security reform emerged from the Proposal of Constitutional Amendment nº 287/2016. The methodology used is based on theoretical-bibliographic research and the method is a historical materialism. The research results present that the conservative-liberal attack to remove the social-security rights is linked to financial interests to increase profit at the expenses of Union budget.

Facing unemployment: study protocol for the implementation and evaluation of a community-based intervention for psychological well-being promotion.

BACKGROUND: Economic crises and unemployment have profound impact on mental health and well-being. Main goal of the Healthy Employment (HE) project is to enhance intersectoral actions promoting mental health among unemployed, namely through the implementation and effectiveness-evaluation of short-term and sustainable group interventions. METHODS: The project follows a RE-AIM-based (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance) framework for assessing a cognitive-behavioural and psychoeducational intervention that has been developed for promoting mental health among unemployed people. It is a short-term group intervention (five sessions, four hours each, 20 unemployed persons per group) focused on mental health literacy, interpersonal communication and of emotional regulation. Implementation of the intervention will be carried out by clinical psychologists, following a standardized procedure manual. Effectiveness will be assessed through a randomized field study with two arms (intervention and control). Participants are unemployed people (18-65 years old, both genders, having at least nine years of formal education) registered at public employment centres from different geographical regions for less than 12 months (including first-job seekers). Allocation to arms of the study will follow a random match-to-case process, considering gender, age groups and educational level. Three moments of evaluation will occur: before intervention (baseline), immediately after its ending and three months later. Main outcomes are mental health literacy, mental health related personal and perceived stigma, psychological well-being, satisfaction with life and resilience. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses will be conducted. Cohen's d coefficient and odds ratio will be used for assessing the size of the intervention effect, when significant. DISCUSSION: Scientific and clinical knowledge will be applied to promote/protect psychological well-being of unemployed people. While the first phases of the project are funded by the European Economic Area Grants, long-term assessments of the intervention require a larger timeframe. Further funding and institutional support will be sought for this purpose. Already established intersectoral collaborations are key-assets to reach long-term sustainability of this project. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry; Prospectively registered number: ACTRN12616001432404 ; date of registration: 13 October 2016.

Health Effects of Economic Crises.

This analysis summarizes prior research and uses national, US state and county-level data from 1976 to 2013 to examine whether the mortality effects of economic crises differ in kind from those of the more typical fluctuations. The tentative conclusion is that economic crises affect mortality rates (and presumably other measures of health) in the same way as less severe downturns - leading to improvements in physical health. The effects of severe national recessions in the USA appear to have a beneficial effect on mortality that is roughly twice as strong as that predicted by the elevated unemployment rates alone, while the higher predicted rate of suicides during typical periods of economic weakness is approximately offset during severe recessions. No consistent pattern is obtained for more localized economic crises occurring at the state level - some estimates suggest larger protective mortality effects while others indicate offsetting deleterious consequences. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Some Musings About Big Events and the Past and Future of Drug Use and of HIV and Other Epidemics.

The term "Big Events" began as a way to help understand how wars, transitions and other crises shape long-term HIV epidemiology in affected areas. It directs attention to the roles of ordinary people in shaping these outcomes. Big Events themselves can take years, as in long-term armed struggles like those in Colombia and also long-term political and economic changes like the turn over the last 15 years of many Latin American countries away from neoliberalism and towards attempts to build solidarity economies of some form. The effects of Big Events on HIV epidemics, at least, may run in phases: In the short term, by creating vulnerability to epidemic outbreaks among existing Key Populations like people who inject drugs (PWID) or men who have sex with men (MSM); then, in their non-PWID (or non-MSM) risk networks; and perhaps, several years later, among youth who became involved in high-risk sexual or drug use networks and behaviors due to the social impacts of the Big Event. Issues of time loom large in other articles in this Special Issue as well. Some articles and commentaries in this issue point to another important phenomenon that should be studied more: The positive contributions that people who use drugs and other members of the population make towards helping other people in their communities during and after Big Events. Finally, this Commentary calls for more thought and research about an impending very Big Event, global climate change, and how it may exacerbate HIV, hepatitis C and other epidemics among people who use drugs and other members of their networks and communities.